by Cliff Kincaid on June 23, 2014. During the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign, Kilimnik provided the Russian Intelligence Services with sensitive information on polling and campaign strategy. Russian influence operations in Estonia - Wikipedia Finding UK-related Tweets is not an easy task. Russian Influence In Lithuania - Global Influence ... Continuing influence. eventually Russian rule and influence. Central African Republic: Ground zero He has a background in research on Russian and Chinese online information operations and is a recognized expert, having ⦠Russian This documentâs conclusions are The Ukraine Crisis Media Centerâs Hybrid Warfare Analytical Group (HWAG) has compiled a report on major operations of Russian information influence in Ukraine in the first half of 2021.. Russian cyber operations, now well known for their role in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, have also been used to exert influence to achieve policy objectives in Europe. Information aggression is increasing in frequency and intensity. Russiaâs preeminent goals in the Balkans have been to refine their disinformation tactics and erode Western influence in the region. Amid this backdrop, a small and informal group gathered on May 2, 2019 in Washington, DC. Read more. Moreover, Russia expands its influence in local communities through influence operations online, national media, and growing ex-patriot communities around the world. What the Mueller report tells us about Russian influence operations. Convicted Russian Influence Agent With Ties To US Republicans Becomes Russian MP January 9 th , 2022 15:13 US media reported in November that a convicted Russian influence agent with strong ties to the Republican Party and Donald Trump had become a member of the Russian parliament. Ben Dubow is CTO and founder of Omelas, a firm that provides data and analysis on how nations manipulate the web to achieve their geopolitical goals. Combined with hack-and-leak operations targeting a senior Clinton aide and the Democratic National Committee, as well as efforts to break into multiple statesâ voting systems, the Russian influence operation represented an unprecedented level of direct interference in U.S. politics by a foreign power. to influence local populationsâincluding information operations, cyber operations and the use of proxies, economic influence, clandestine operations, and political influence. It follows with sections on Russiaâs use of force and military power; influence and cyber operations; and foreign economic policies. The Russian leadershipâs best bet against the collective West is currently in these operations. Ben Dubow on Detecting and Countering Malign Influence Operations. On May 7, 2020, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) hosted a virtual event coinciding with the release of a new CNAS report, Dangerous Synergies: Countering Chinese and Russian Digital Influence Operations, by Daniel Kliman, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Kristine Lee, Joshua Fitt, and Carisa Nietsche. The Ukraine Crisis Media Centerâs Hybrid Warfare Analytical Group (HWAG) has compiled a report on major operations of Russian information influence in Ukraine in the first half of 2021.. RealClearDefense. These recent Russian efforts reflect a long history of influence operations. Researcher shows how Russian influence can occur in alternative U.S. media. Titled âOverview of the major Russian information influence operations in Ukraine for the first half of 2021,â it breaks down the information operations, identifies key local actors ⦠Russian influence operations include a "toolkit of subversive statecraft" first developed by the Bolsheviks and later the Soviet Union and now "upgraded for the digital age," Mitchell said. WikiLeaksâ and Russian media operations continued to influence public debate in Egypt after Mubarak stepped down. He has a background in research on Russian and Chinese online information operations and is a recognized expert, having ⦠AUGUST 13, 2021 â A new study by Douglas Wilbur, a visiting scholar in the UTSA Department of Communication, examines the claims made by the fact-checking website Prop or Not that Russian propaganda targets the American public. Their efforts are overt, using government offices and spokesmen to criticize American leaders, U.S.-based events, and U.S. engagement abroad, as well as covert where they seek to hide their involvement in the campaign. To discuss these questions and gauge the impact of Russian influence operations in the Western Balkans, The Henry Jackson Society is holding a panel discussion with Dr Dimitar Bechev, Dr Mira MiloÅ¡eviÄ-Juaristi and Professor Vesko GarÄeviÄ. Terrorism. Dr. Vartanova also argued that Russia aims to use its influence to upset the current multi-polar world order in which the US is currently leading. Konstantin Kilimnik (Kilimnik) is a Russian and Ukrainian political consultant and known Russian Intelligence Services agent implementing influence operations on their behalf. The aim of these influence operations is âprimarily to denigrate Vice President Biden and what the Russians see as kind of an anti-Russian establishment," he said. Ben Dubow on Detecting and Countering Malign Influence Operations. While the Soviet Union may have collapsed nearly 30 years ago, Russia believes it is at war with the United States and that the United States is at war with it. Although the overall impact of Russian disinformation operations in the 2016 election has not been conclusively determined, many have suggested that such operations swung thousands of votes in key swing states, possibly affecting the final election outcome.l Further, the threat presented by the To discuss these questions and gauge the impact of Russian influence operations in the Western Balkans, The Henry Jackson Society is holding a panel discussion with Dr Dimitar Bechev, Dr Mira MiloÅ¡eviÄ-Juaristi and Professor Vesko GarÄeviÄ. Convicted Russian Influence Agent With Ties To US Republicans Becomes Russian MP January 9 th , 2022 15:13 US media reported in November that a convicted Russian influence agent with strong ties to the Republican Party and Donald Trump had become a member of the Russian parliament. Foreign and Defense Policy Europe and Eurasia. To develop best approaches to these troubling trends, the United States must first understand the challenges posed by China and The second major event was the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, in which Turkey and Russia served as major external stakeholders. Consistent with 2016 and 2018, however, is that Russia continues to pose the greatest threat to the 2020 U.S. presidential elections, based on past success in conducting phishing and cyberattack operations, a relentless persisten⦠Three main additional events triggered pro-Russian influence operations after 2019. These operations have continued through 2020 . According to the Annual address on foreign policy goals from 2016, Poland acknowledges that Russia seeks to expand its sphere of influence and inhibit the democratic transition of Eastern Europe with the means of hybrid activities, including propaganda. The term âinfluence operationâ is, after all, used rather vaguely by Russian theorists themselves. For Norway, the challenge is Russiaâs attempts to fuel disagreements people in the north have with decisions taken in Oslo. Twitter has taken action against a slew of state-linked influence operations run from Russia, Iran and Armenia in recent days, the company announced Tuesday. Both Russia and China view influence operations as a key tool to project their power and influence abroad. Analysis of the operation underscores that there are many remaining unknowns about Russia's military capabilities, especially in the aftermath of its military reforms and modernization program. Intelligence agencies have found that Russia used influence operations to interfere with the 2016 presidential election in favor of Trumpâs campaign and conducted operations in Trumpâs favor in 2020. As of January , when the Turkstream pipeline across the Black Sea began operations, Turkey stopped receiving Russian gas through the Trans-Balkan Pipeline from Ukraine, which it had done since the mids. When we use the term âweâ it refers to an assessment by all three agencies. Finally, a third model of conducting influence operations is to use Russiaâs state-owned enterprises â Rosneft, Gazprom, Rosatom, Rostech, etc. The Kremlin has rapidly exploited the recent absence of Western involvement in the Central African Republic. Modern Russian intelligence operations, cyber intrusions and influence operations have found both potency in the proliferation of social media technologies and a receptive target in the existing political and social divisions in the United States. The first was the emergence of COVID-19 and the onset of the global race for vaccines. Through the Address, Poland also calls for enhancement of NATO-EU cooperation on the field of countering disinformation and influence operations and increasing cybersecurity. On 24 November 2019, WikiLeaks posted an email, purportedly from a whistleblower on the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) team assigned to investigate the chemical weapons attack on the Syrian city of Douma. Countering Russiaâs influence operations in the Balkans. As Kevin McCauley noted in his book, Russian Influence Campaigns against the West, the Soviets developed what they believed was an objective, scientific framework for evaluating information operations: reflexive control theory. The 2016 presidential election is a case in point. âInfluence operationâ has become an easy catch-all term denoting a variety of hostile though usually non-military acts. This chapter investigates the evolution of Russian hybrid means and the ends to which they are applied. But for influence operations that are more directly focused on a particular policy outcome, only those related to that issue will be effective. Media reports, including dramatic documentaries and breathless biopics on the ten Russian âillegalsâ arrested ⦠Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-à-vis conflict with the United ⦠This book examines Russian influence operations globally, in Europe, and in Russiaâs neighboring countries, and provides a comprehensive overview of the latest technologies and forms of strategic communication employed in hybrid warfare. Russian Influence In Lithuania. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK think tank, published a study last year examining Chinaâs and Russiaâs influence operations in Austria. While the Polish political establishment is highly concerned about Russian influence, certain fringe groups on the far-right have advocated for closer relations with Russia. Russia uses messaging and intimidation in its efforts to influence multiple actors and countries. China's influence operations offer a glimpse into the future of information warfare. â to offer foreign government officials preferential deals in return for influence. Kremlin Watch is a strategic program of the European Values Center for Security Policy which aims to expose and confront instruments of Russian influence and disinformation operations focused against Western democracies. Russia has long been an innovator in the use of information and misinformation by its military. In 1710 the Russian Tsar, Peter I conquered the North-East part of current Latvia â Vidzeme, which together with Riga provided an exit to the Baltic Sea and its important trading lines. Russian influence operations are more sophisticated than seen before and now better designed to target the audience in different countries. As frequent targets, how can the United States and its European allies defend themselves? Prigozhin is a Russian financier of the Internet Research Agency (IRA), the Russian troll farm that OFAC previously designated for interfering in the 2016 presidential election. Dr Dimitar Bechev is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Washington DC. September 8 th, 2021 15:58. Russian Influence Operations on Twitter. Russiaâs global strategy for reasserting itself as a geopolitical superpower has led to an increased presence in Africa, where it has broadened efforts to shape the continentâs politics and pursue new economic opportunities to allay the effects of sanctions.While the presence of Russian military instructors and paramilitary groups in Libya and the Central African Republic ⦠The Baltic Sea Eastern shores were perceived by Russians as a âwindow to Europeâ. According to the Estonian Internal Security Service, Russian influence operations in Estonia form a complex system of financial, political, economic and espionage activities in Republic of Estonia for the purposes of influencing Estonia's political and economic decisions in ways considered favourable to Russian Federation and conducted under the doctrine of near abroad. Through various proxies, the Russian government carried out a multi-pronged attack against the United States that aimed to amplify pre-existing divisions in American society, sow distrust in the democratic process, and incite conflict. Still, the example of Turkey illustrates the limits of natural gas as a lever of influence for Russia. Russia was conducting political influence operations supported by intelligence activities. French and Russian Influence Operations Go Head to Head Targeting Audiences in Africa On December 15, Facebook announced that it had taken down three separate networks that it had discovered for âcoordinated inauthentic ⦠A social media influence and infiltration operation led by the Internet Research Agency (IRA); A cyber hacking operation carried out by the Russian military intelligence (GRU); and; An infiltration operation of the Trump campaign. Technology-enabled influence operations, including disinformation, will likely figure prominently in adversary efforts to impede U.S. crisis response and alliance management in high-risk, high-impact scenarios under a nuclear shadow. About. âInfluence operationâ has become an easy catch-all term denoting a variety of hostile though usually non-military acts. The conceptual confusion is regrettable but also unsurprising. The term âinfluence operationâ is, after all, used rather vaguely by Russian theorists themselves. Russiaâs approach to information warfare is holistic, and includes both cyber strikes and information operations as cohesive elements that work in tandem to achieve Russian foreign policy goals. Russia can select from a very large toolbox when engaging in influence operations.The different tools are all ultimately used in attempts to influence personal views and/or public opinion. Russiaâs many activities have put the West on the defensive. The report suggests a grudging respect for the scale and creativity of Russian influence operations. Chinese and Russian influence doesn't come through just information operations. disinformation operations were at the center of Russiaâs interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Russiaâs present leaders fear that U.S. advantages in information technology allow Washington and its allies to undermine Russian social, cultural, and political institutions as part of its broader campaign to ensure Western geopolitical dominance. Senator McCain called for a special select committee of the U.S. Senate to investigate Russian meddling in the election, and called election meddling an "act of war". Russia's actions in the Baltics include a combination of nonviolent covert action to influence or undermine target governments, violent but deniable covert action This book examines Russian influence operations globally, in Europe, and in Russiaâs neighboring countries, and provides a comprehensive overview of the latest technologies and forms of strategic communication employed in hybrid warfare. In the context of Russian operations in Ukraine, we are interested today in two kinds of activities. Influence operations, which seek to leverage media and propaganda efforts as well as business and political ties to attain national goals are, if not always aboveboard, surely short of armed conflict. Russiaâs interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections has focused American attention on the long-standing and complicated subject of malign foreign influence operations. November 15 th, 2021 14:46. This theory developed out of research into psychology and cybernetics as the Soviet Ministry of Defense sought to incorporate the ⦠The Free Russia Foundation, a US think tank, reported last month about Russiaâs influence operations in Lithuania. Independent numbers are hard to come by. The report describes in stunning detail the inner workings of the full Russian operation. Russian Influence Operations Target Americans Cliff Kincaid A major case of what intelligence experts call "influence operations" emanating from Moscow is this week's "Rhodes Forum," which is sponsored by Vladimir Putin's close associate and former KGB official Vladimir Yakunin. Another essential step to countering information warfare is for governments targeted by Russian influence operations to develop a metric of damage that acknowledges a range of objectives, including influencing elections. Finding UK-related Tweets is not an easy task. Ben Dubow is CTO and founder of Omelas, a firm that provides data and analysis on how nations manipulate the web to achieve their geopolitical goals. Russiaâs relations with key countries and regions. The conceptual confusion is regrettable but also unsurprising. The campaign involved three distinct elements:[4] 1. about Russian influence operations in Europe. The threat landscape of the upcoming election differs from 2016 and 2018; threat actors and activity groups who previously targeted elections have largely remained on the sidelines. Jabbed in the Back: Mapping Russian and Chinese Information Operations During COVID-19 Amplifiers: How Pro-Kremlin Narratives Spread in French-Speaking Facebook The GLOBSEC Vulnerability Index: Evaluating susceptibility to foreign malign influence in 8 Central European & Western Balkan countries Old Influence Operations Playbook, New Media Tools. 14 The Kremlin sees information as a new type of weapon ⦠Summary This short paper lays out an attempt to measure how much activity from Russian state-operated accounts released in the dataset made available by Twitter in October 2018 was targeted at the United Kingdom. Through the Address, Poland also calls for enhancement of NATO-EU cooperatio⦠The report then analyzes U.S.-Russia relations, including U.S. policy during the current and prior Administrations and recent congressional actions. On matters important for Kremlin. Titled âOverview of the major Russian information influence operations in Ukraine for the first half of 2021,â it breaks down the information operations, identifies key local actors ⦠While bearing many similarities to influence operations, and often using many of the same techniques, Russiaâs destabilization operations aim not just to influence, but also to stoke or amplify divisions and disorder among Russiaâs adversaries. OPCW, WikiLeaks, and Russian Influence Operations. Russian Influence Operations Target Americans. Kremlin Watch. An But the Russians were not eager to take credit for their own efforts. Given the growing importance of comprehensive information warfare as a new and rapidly advancing type of ⦠Chinese And Russian Influence In Austria. Twitter scrubs accounts tied to Russian, Iranian influence operations. Intelligence experts are monitoring the "competition between democratic systems and ⦠â to offer foreign government officials preferential deals in return for influence. disinformation operations were at the center of Russiaâs interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The ⦠Russian Influence Operations in Washington. He found evidence that popular sites such ⦠Russia has used these same tactics in recent years against other democracies, particularly in Russian influence operations include a "toolkit of subversive statecraft" first developed by the Bolsheviks and later the Soviet Union and now "upgraded for the digital age," Mitchell said. Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-à-vis conflict with the United States. Countering Russia's Malign and Subversive Information Efforts. 2016 US presidential election and draws on our understanding of previous Russian influence operations. The Weakest Link: Russian Influence Operation in the Netherlands Reveals Vulnerabilities in EU Foreign Policy Powers. Summary This short paper lays out an attempt to measure how much activity from Russian state-operated accounts released in the dataset made available by Twitter in October 2018 was targeted at the United Kingdom. Influence operations are selected from a very large toolbox spanning all three domains â the physical, the digital and the cognitive. "Unmasking Maskirovka," is Daniel Bagge's systematic deconstruction of how Russian cyber-influence operations are so deadly. This report is a declassified version of a highly classified assessment. While Russia has brought this issue into the mainstream political conversation, concerns over the ability of foreign nationsâparticularly autocraciesâto exploit the openness of Americaâs ⦠A new Russia scandal has ⦠This chapter is part of a volume due out with Springer in early 2021, titled The Russian Federation in Global Information Warfare: Influence Operations in Europe and Its Near Abroad, edited by Vladimir Sazonov of the University of Tartu and Holger Mölder, Archil Chochia and Tanel Kerikmäe of the Tallinn University of Technology. The 2007 DDoS attack on Estonia brought attention to large-scale attacks but network probing and small-scale hacks sometimes go unnoticed. by Cliff Kincaid on September 23, 2014. Dr Dimitar Bechev is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Washington DC. Technology-enabled influence operations, including disinformation, will likely figure prominently in adversary efforts to impede U.S. crisis response and alliance management in high-risk, high-impact scenarios under a nuclear shadow. In Montenegro, Russiaâs military intelligence service, or GRU, launched a classic influence operation in 2015 to try to stop the countryâs NATO accession process by laundering funds to the leaders of a small pro-Russia political party and by engaging in disinformation operations to cast doubt on the benefits of NATO membership. While Russian influence operations have a history that goes far beyond the concept of hybrid warfare, they have seldom gotten such attention. The effort to better understand Russiaâs covert influence operations is being coordinated by James R. Clapper Jr., the director of national intelligence. Russia's operations in Crimea benefited from highly favorable circumstances â political, historical, geographical, and military â that limit their generalizability. Members of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee traveled to Ukraine and Poland in 2016 and learned about Russian operations to influence their elections. Finally, a third model of conducting influence operations is to use Russiaâs state-owned enterprises â Rosneft, Gazprom, Rosatom, Rostech, etc. November 9, 2021. This is the textbook for a graduate course in cyber that isn't being taught yet. Russian Influence Operations on Twitter. One day soon the leading schools in the West will be scrambling to teach this to intelligence officers, journalists, and political consultants. Immediate steps need to be taken to halt malign Russian influence. The head of the firm behind a report on ongoing Russian influence campaigns in the United States was part of a Democratic project to create fake Russian bots ahead of the Alabama special election in December 2017. Unlike some EU countries, condemnation of Russian influence is seen on a bipartisan scale, drawing criticism from the right, left, and center. The Russian-led alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), has said the force is part of a âpeacekeepingâ mission to ⦠The Association for Free Research and International Cooperation (AFRIC), a front company for Yevgeniy Prigozhin's influence operations in Africa. Russiaâs long-standing, overall foreign policy objective is to weaken adversaries, particularly countries on its periphery, those in NATO, and the United States, by any means available, and its information warfare targets social cohesion and political systems toward this aim. Russian influence operations in Canada are clandestine operations conducted by Russian government and government-affiliated entities against Canada. The former Soviet Union used propaganda at home to strengthen domestic views of the state and information operations abroad to foster unrest among its adversaries and create favorable conditions on the battlefield. RUSSIAN INFLUENCE OPERATIONS street protests and the deployment of motorcycle gangs. During the twentieth century, the Soviet Union exploited Russian propaganda arms and security forces are propping up the country's embattled leader in exchange for decisive influence in the region. The Russian influence campaign that occurred during the 2016 US Presidential election is a key example of this emerging practice of what this report refers to as soft cyber influence operations. 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